Study on the components of ecological footprint and biocapacity in China 1949-2006 based on entropy method

doi:10.11821/yj2009010015

Abstract

Abstract:

Two concepts of ecological footprint component index (EFCI) and bicapacity component index (BCCI) are proposed based on ecological footprint (EF) and entropy methods in this paper. EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2006 are calculated, and predicted with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results show that: 1) Over the last 57 years, EFCI in China has constantly increased with fluctuation, being 0.0081 in 1949 and 0.0285 in 2006, respectively. BCCI has slowly decreased with fluctuation, but increased in some years. For example, BCCI is 0.0264 in 1949, 0.0147 in 1983, 0.0169 in 1984, and 0.0132 in 2006, respectively. 2) Many tests (including ADF and PP unit root test of residues, fitting forecast and real series) show that ARIMA (2, 1, 1) model of EFCI, ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model of BCCI are their optimum prediction models, respectively. The forecasts calculated from 2007 to 2010 indicate that EFCI will increase to 0.0293 in 2007 and then fall to 0.0280 in 2010, while BCCI will decrease to 0.0129 in 2010. The relationship between EFCI and each of the selected ten influencing factors with prominent correlative coefficients is analyzed. A model between EFCI and the ten factors is constructed based on partial least-squares regression (PLSR) method in order to explore their sequence of correlation influence. The results show that the positive correlation sequence is urban population, primary industry output value, total population, total value of imports and exports, and tertiary industry output value. The negative correlation sequence is government consumption expenditure, rural population, resident consumption expenditure, per capita GDP, and secondary industry output value. The modeling of the abundance indices is a useful tool for a better understanding of the dynamics of EF component, and enables short-term quantitative recommendations of ecosystem management. The effective approaches which could boost up sustainable development in China may be adjusting population structure, boosting primary industry and international trade development, holding down resident consumption and government consumption expenditures, and moderate growth of GDP including secondary industry.

Key words: ecological footprint component index (EFCI), biocapacity component index (BCCI), entropy method, ARIMA, PLSR

鎽樿锛�

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鍏抽敭璇�: 鐢熸�佽冻杩规瀯鎴愭寚鏁�, 鐢熺墿鎵胯浇鍔涙瀯鎴愭寚鏁�, 鐔靛�兼硶, ARIMA, 鍋忔渶灏忎簩涔樺洖褰�

CHEN Cheng-zhong, LIN Zhen-shan. Study on the components of ecological footprint and biocapacity in China 1949-2006 based on entropy method[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2009, 28(1): 129-142.

闄堟垚蹇�, 鏋楁尟灞�. 涓浗浜哄潎鐢熸�佽冻杩瑰拰鐢熺墿鎵胯浇鍔� 鏋勬垚鐨勫彉鍔ㄨ寰媅J]. 鍦扮悊鐮旂┒, 2009, 28(1): 129-142.

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