全球气候变化对黄河流域天然径流量影响的情景分析

doi:10.11821/yj2006020010

鍦扮悊鐮旂┒ 鈥衡�� 2006, Vol. 25 鈥衡�� Issue (2): 268-275.DOI: 10.11821/yj2006020010

鈥� 璁烘枃鈥� 涓婁竴绡� 涓嬩竴绡�

鍏ㄧ悆姘斿�欏彉鍖栧榛勬渤娴佸煙澶╃劧寰勬祦閲忓奖鍝嶇殑鎯呮櫙鍒嗘瀽

寮犲厜杈�^1,2

鍖椾含甯堣寖澶у鍦扮悊瀛︿笌閬ユ劅绉戝瀛﹂櫌鍖椾含100875,鍖椾含鏋椾笟澶у姘村湡淇濇寔涓庤崚婕犲寲闃叉不鏁欒偛閮ㄩ噸鐐瑰疄楠屽,鍖椾含100083

鏀剁鏃ユ湡:2005-06-18 淇洖鏃ユ湡:2005-09-24 鍑虹増鏃ユ湡:2006-04-15 鍙戝竷鏃ユ湡:2006-04-15
浣滆�呯畝浠�:寮犲厜杈�(1969-),鐢�,鍗氬＋,鍓暀鎺堛�備粠浜嬫按鏂囨暀瀛︿笌鍦熷￥渚佃殌鐮旂┒宸ヤ綔,宸插彂琛ㄨ鏂�40浣欑瘒銆� E-mail:ghzhang@bnu.edu.cn.
鍩洪噾璧勫姪:
鏁欒偛閮ㄩ噸鐐瑰疄楠屽鍩洪噾椤圭洰;鍥藉鑷劧绉戝鍩洪噾閲嶇偣椤圭洰(40235056)

Analysis on potential effects of global climate change on natural runoff in the Yellow River Basin

ZHANG Guang-hui^1,2

1. School of Geography,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;
2. Soil and Water Conservationand Combating Desertification,Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education,Beijing 100083,China

Received:2005-06-18 Revised:2005-09-24 Online:2006-04-15 Published:2006-04-15

鎽樿/Abstract

鎽樿锛�

鏈枃浠庡共鏃辨寚鏁拌捀鍙戠巼鍑芥暟鍑哄彂,浠adCM3 GCM瀵归檷姘村拰娓╁害鐨勬ā鎷熺粨鏋滀负鍩虹,鍦↖PCC涓嶅悓鍙戝睍鎯呮櫙涓�,鍒嗘瀽浜嗘湭鏉ヨ繎100骞村唴榛勬渤娴佸煙澶╃劧寰勬祦閲忕殑鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍銆傜爺绌剁粨鏋滆〃鏄�,鍦ㄤ笉鍚屾皵鍊欏彉鍖栨儏鏅笅,澶氬勾骞冲潎骞村緞娴侀噺鐨勫彉鍖栭殢鐫�鍖哄煙鐨勪笉鍚岃�屾湁鏄捐憲宸紓,鍏跺彉鍖栧箙搴﹀湪-48.0%²03.0%涔嬮棿銆傚叏鐞冩皵鍊欏彉鍖栧紩璧风殑澶氬勾骞冲潎澶╃劧寰勬祦閲忕殑鍙樺寲浠庝笢鍚戣タ閫愭笎鍑忓皬銆傚氨榛勬渤娴佸煙鑰岃█,2006²035骞淬��2036²065骞淬��2066²095骞碅2鎯呮櫙涓嬶紙浜哄彛蹇�熷闀裤�佺粡娴庡彂灞曠紦鎱級澶氬勾骞冲潎澶╃劧寰勬祦閲忕殑鍙樺寲閲忓垎鍒负5.0%銆�11.7%銆�8.1%,B2鎯呮櫙涓嬶紙寮鸿皟绀句細鎶�鏈垱鏂帮級鐩稿簲鐨勫彉鍖栧垎鍒负7.2%銆�-3.1%銆�2.6%銆�

鍏抽敭璇�: 姘斿�欏彉鍖�, 骞叉棻鎸囨暟, 钂稿彂鐜囧嚱鏁�, 寰勬祦閲�, 榛勬渤娴佸煙

Abstract:

Water scarcity is one of the most challenging issues in natural resources at present and in future,especially in arid and semi-arid regions.In the Yellow River Basin,rapid growths of population,urbanization,and industrialization have caused ever-increasing competition for water.Any kind of changes in water resource caused by global climate change will have significant implications to such a water shortage basin.This study was conducted to evaluate the potential effects of global climate change on the mean natural annual runoff in the Yellow River Basin under different climatic scenarios of HadCM3 GCM based on the evaporation ratio function of the aridity index,which considers both climate and soil surface characteristics.Six sub-basins were divided based on the runoff producing properties.The mean precipitation and evaporation of 1961-1990 of each sub-basin were obtained based on 56 stations within and around the Yellow River Basin.The future changes in climate were the relative changes between baseline(1961-1990) and different periods(2006-2035,2036-2065,2066-2095) generated by GCM model.The delta change method was to get the climate change for each station.Simulations using HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios indicated that the changes in annual runoff varied from region to region within the range of-48.0% to more than 203%.In general,the potential changes in annual runoff decreased from east to west.For the Yellow River Basin,the mean annual runoff increased up to 5.0%,11.7%,and 8.1% for the A2 scenario,and the changes were 7.2%,-3.1%,and 2.6% for B2 scenario by the year of 2020,2050 and 2080,respectively.

Key words: climate change, aridity index, natural runoff, the Yellow River Basin

寮犲厜杈�. 鍏ㄧ悆姘斿�欏彉鍖栧榛勬渤娴佸煙澶╃劧寰勬祦閲忓奖鍝嶇殑鎯呮櫙鍒嗘瀽[J]. 鍦扮悊鐮旂┒, 2006, 25(2): 268-275.

ZHANG Guang-hui. Analysis on potential effects of global climate change on natural runoff in the Yellow River Basin[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2006, 25(2): 268-275.

鍙傝�冩枃鐚�

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鍏ㄧ悆姘斿�欏彉鍖栧榛勬渤娴佸煙澶╃劧寰勬祦閲忓奖鍝嶇殑鎯呮櫙鍒嗘瀽

Analysis on potential effects of global climate change on natural runoff in the Yellow River Basin

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鎽樿/Abstract

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