中国跨省流动人口回流意愿的空间差异及影响因素

张华; 刘哲达; 殷小冰

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.01.007

鎽樿/Abstract

鎽樿锛�

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鍏抽敭璇�: 鐪侀檯娴佸姩浜哄彛, 鍥炴祦鎰忔効, 绌洪棿宸紓, 浜屽垎绫籐ogistic妯″瀷

Abstract:

Along with the urban industrial structure adjustment and the development of the rural economy, a large-scale backflow of inter-provincial migrant workers gradually emerged, which had a tremendous impact on China's economic and social development. The spatial differences and influencing factors of inter-provincial migrant workers' backflow intention are vital issues, particularly in predicting the changing demographic trends and understanding the migrant population's needs and demands. Drawing on data from the 2016 China Migrant Population Dynamic Survey, this study discussed the spatial distribution and influencing factors of 82846 inter-provincial migrant workers from 31 provinces of China's mainland using a binary Logistic regression model. The results are as follows: 1) Older migrant workers with lower education level or without stable marital status seem to have stronger backflow intention. 2) The distribution of backflow intention presents a remarkable spatial differentiation. Among the three main geographical regions, the backflow intention of migrant workers currently in the eastern and western regions of China is stronger while the migrant workers who came from the central region express their clear willingness to return. 3) Backflow intention is influenced by personal factors of migrant population, their migration characteristics, family factors, and institutional factors. For all the factors, age, marital status, education, years of working after migration, migrating with family or not, family income, housing condition, and social security system are significant forces that shape the spatial pattern of inter-provincial migrant workers' backflow intention in China.

Key words: inter-provincial migrant workers, backflow intention, spatial difference, binary Logistic regression model

寮犲崕, 鍒樺摬杈�, 娈峰皬鍐�. 涓浗璺ㄧ渷娴佸姩浜哄彛鍥炴祦鎰忔効鐨勭┖闂村樊寮傚強褰卞搷鍥犵礌[J]. 鍦扮悊绉戝杩涘睍, 2021, 40(1): 73-84.

ZHANG Hua, LIU Zheda, YIN Xiaobing. Spatial differences and influencing factors of inter-provincial migrant workers鈥� backflow intention in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(1): 73-84.

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閾炬帴鏈枃: https://www.progressingeography.com/CN/10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.01.007

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鍙傝�冩枃鐚� 34

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瀹跺涵鍥犵礌	浜茬敓瀛愬コ鏁�(涓�)	杩炵画鍙橀噺	1.41
	瀹跺涵鏈堟敹鍏�(鍏�)	杩炵画鍙橀噺	7650
	鐜颁綇鎴挎�ц川	鑷喘鎴�=0 绉熶綇鍗曚綅鎴�=1 寤変环鍏鎴�=2 绉熶綇绉佹埧=3	19.5% 16.9% 0.5% 63.1%
鍒跺害鍥犵礌	鎴峰彛鎬ц川	鍐滀笟鎴风睄=0 闈炲啘涓氭埛绫�=1	83.7% 16.3%
	鏄惁鍙傚姞澶变笟淇濋櫓	鏄�=0 鍚�=1	21.3% 78.7%
	鏄惁鍙傚姞宸ヤ激淇濋櫓	鏄�=0 鍚�=1	24.9% 75.1%
	鏄惁鍙傚姞鏂板瀷鍚堜綔鍖荤枟	鏄�=0 鍚�=1	62.6% 37.4%

褰卞搷鍥犵礌	鍏蜂綋鎸囨爣	鍙橀噺鐣屽畾	鍧囧�兼垨鍗犳瘮
涓汉鍥犵礌	骞撮緞(宀�)	杩炵画鍙橀噺	35.25
	鎬у埆	鐢�=0 濂�=1	53.6% 46.4%
	濠氬Щ鐘跺喌	鏈=0 宸插=1 绂诲=2	7.6% 71.6% 20.8%
	鍙楁暀鑲茬▼搴�	鏈笂杩囧=0 灏忓=1 鍒濅腑=2 楂樹腑(鍖呮嫭涓笓)=3 澶т笓鍙婁互涓�=4	1.8% 13.8% 49.0% 20.8% 14.6%
娴佸姩鍥犵礌	杩涘煄鍔″伐鏃堕棿	1~2 a=0 3~4 a=1 5~19 a=2 20 a鍙婁互涓�=3	25.5% 16.7% 52.9% 4.9%
	鏈娴佸姩鍘熷洜	鍔″伐缁忓晢=0 闅忚縼濠氬珌=1 鐓ч【鑰佷汉灏忓=2 鍏朵粬=3	86.6% 9.9% 1.8% 1.7%
	鏈鏄惁鏄嫭鑷祦鍔�	鏄�=0 鍚�=1	37.3% 62.7%
瀹跺涵鍥犵礌	浜茬敓瀛愬コ鏁�(涓�)	杩炵画鍙橀噺	1.41
	瀹跺涵鏈堟敹鍏�(鍏�)	杩炵画鍙橀噺	7650
	鐜颁綇鎴挎�ц川	鑷喘鎴�=0 绉熶綇鍗曚綅鎴�=1 寤変环鍏鎴�=2 绉熶綇绉佹埧=3	19.5% 16.9% 0.5% 63.1%
鍒跺害鍥犵礌	鎴峰彛鎬ц川	鍐滀笟鎴风睄=0 闈炲啘涓氭埛绫�=1	83.7% 16.3%
	鏄惁鍙傚姞澶变笟淇濋櫓	鏄�=0 鍚�=1	21.3% 78.7%
	鏄惁鍙傚姞宸ヤ激淇濋櫓	鏄�=0 鍚�=1	24.9% 75.1%
	鏄惁鍙傚姞鏂板瀷鍚堜綔鍖荤枟	鏄�=0 鍚�=1	62.6% 37.4%

鍙橀噺	绯绘暟B	Exp(B)
骞撮緞	0.001^*	1.001
骞撮緞骞虫柟椤�	0.284^***	1.328
鎬у埆(鐢锋�т负鍙傜収缁�)	-0.052	0.949
濠氬Щ鐘跺喌(鏈涓哄弬鐓х粍)
宸插	-0.084^*	0.919
绂诲	0.127^*	1.135
鍙楁暀鑲茬▼搴�(鏈笂杩囧涓哄弬鐓х粍)
灏忓	-0.088^***	0.916
鍒濅腑	-0.191^**	0.826
楂樹腑(鍖呮嫭涓笓)	-0.425^**	0.654
澶т笓鍙婁互涓�	-0.792^**	0.453
杩涘煄鍔″伐鏃堕棿(1~2 a涓哄弬鐓х粍)
3~4 a	-0.155^**	0.857
5~19 a	-0.442^***	0.643
20 a鍙婁互涓�	-0.637^***	0.529
鏈娴佸姩鍘熷洜(鍔″伐缁忓晢涓哄弬鐓х粍)
闅忚縼濠氬珌	-0.192^*	0.826
鐓ч【鑰佷汉灏忓	0.185^**	1.203
鍏朵粬	-0.165	0.848
鏈鏄惁鏄嫭鑷祦鍔�(鈥滄槸鈥濅负鍙傜収缁�)	-0.282^***	0.754
浜茬敓瀛愬コ鏁�	-0.085	0.919
瀹跺涵鏈堟敹鍏�	-0.008^***	0.992
鐜颁綇鎴挎�ц川(鑷喘鎴夸负鍙傜収缁�)
绉熶綇鍗曚綅鎴�	1.989^***	7.307
鍏鎴�	0.758^***	2.133
绉熶綇绉佹埧	1.484^***	4.41
鎴峰彛鎬ц川(鍐滀笟鎴风睄涓哄弬鐓х粍)	0.012	1.012
鏄惁鍙傚姞澶变笟淇濋櫓(鈥滄槸鈥濅负鍙傜収缁�)	0.508^***	1.663
鏄惁鍙傚姞宸ヤ激淇濋櫓(鈥滄槸鈥濅负鍙傜収缁�)	-0.396^***	0.673
鏄惁鍙傚姞鏂板瀷鍚堜綔鍖荤枟(鈥滄槸鈥濅负鍙傜収缁�)	-0.257^***	0.774
甯搁噺	-3.194	0.041

鍙橀噺	绯绘暟B	Exp(B)
骞撮緞	0.001^*	1.001
骞撮緞骞虫柟椤�	0.284^***	1.328
鎬у埆(鐢锋�т负鍙傜収缁�)	-0.052	0.949
濠氬Щ鐘跺喌(鏈涓哄弬鐓х粍)
宸插	-0.084^*	0.919
绂诲	0.127^*	1.135
鍙楁暀鑲茬▼搴�(鏈笂杩囧涓哄弬鐓х粍)
灏忓	-0.088^***	0.916
鍒濅腑	-0.191^**	0.826
楂樹腑(鍖呮嫭涓笓)	-0.425^**	0.654
澶т笓鍙婁互涓�	-0.792^**	0.453
杩涘煄鍔″伐鏃堕棿(1~2 a涓哄弬鐓х粍)
3~4 a	-0.155^**	0.857
5~19 a	-0.442^***	0.643
20 a鍙婁互涓�	-0.637^***	0.529
鏈娴佸姩鍘熷洜(鍔″伐缁忓晢涓哄弬鐓х粍)
闅忚縼濠氬珌	-0.192^*	0.826
鐓ч【鑰佷汉灏忓	0.185^**	1.203
鍏朵粬	-0.165	0.848
鏈鏄惁鏄嫭鑷祦鍔�(鈥滄槸鈥濅负鍙傜収缁�)	-0.282^***	0.754
浜茬敓瀛愬コ鏁�	-0.085	0.919
瀹跺涵鏈堟敹鍏�	-0.008^***	0.992
鐜颁綇鎴挎�ц川(鑷喘鎴夸负鍙傜収缁�)
绉熶綇鍗曚綅鎴�	1.989^***	7.307
鍏鎴�	0.758^***	2.133
绉熶綇绉佹埧	1.484^***	4.41
鎴峰彛鎬ц川(鍐滀笟鎴风睄涓哄弬鐓х粍)	0.012	1.012
鏄惁鍙傚姞澶变笟淇濋櫓(鈥滄槸鈥濅负鍙傜収缁�)	0.508^***	1.663
鏄惁鍙傚姞宸ヤ激淇濋櫓(鈥滄槸鈥濅负鍙傜収缁�)	-0.396^***	0.673
鏄惁鍙傚姞鏂板瀷鍚堜綔鍖荤枟(鈥滄槸鈥濅负鍙傜収缁�)	-0.257^***	0.774
甯搁噺	-3.194	0.041

涓浗璺ㄧ渷娴佸姩浜哄彛鍥炴祦鎰忔効鐨勭┖闂村樊寮傚強褰卞搷鍥犵礌

Spatial differences and influencing factors of inter-provincial migrant workers鈥� backflow intention in China

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寮曠敤鏈枃

浣跨敤鏈枃

鍥�/琛� 8

鍙傝�冩枃鐚� 34

鐩稿叧鏂囩珷 15

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[2]	閽辫秴宄�, 鏉滃痉鏂�, 鑳＄拠, 娈靛痉蹇�. 鍦板尯闂村熀鍥犲樊寮備細褰卞搷鎶�鏈浆绉诲悧?鈥斺�斿熀浜庝腑鍥�2001鈥�2005骞寸渷闄呬笓鍒╄浆璁╂暟鎹�[J]. 鍦扮悊绉戝杩涘睍, 2019, 38(5): 745-755.
[3]	璐虹伩椋�,澶忔槙楦�,榛庢槑. 涓浗鍑哄彛璐告槗闊ф�х┖闂村樊寮傛�х爺绌�[J]. 鍦扮悊绉戝杩涘睍, 2019, 38(10): 1558-1570.
[4]	鑼冩瘬濠�, 鍒樺崼涓�. 涓浗绾虹粐浼佷笟娴峰鐩存帴鎶曡祫绌洪棿鏍煎眬[J]. 鍦扮悊绉戝杩涘睍, 2018, 37(3): 418-426.
[5]	璧靛畯娉�, 鍐笂鍗�, 钁ｅ啝楣�, 鑻楅暱铏�. 澶у煄甯傚眳姘戣嚜璇勫仴搴蜂笌鐜鍗卞鎰熺煡鐨勭┖闂村樊寮傚強褰卞搷鍥犵礌——鍩轰簬閮戝窞甯傚尯鐨勫疄璇佺爺绌�[J]. 鍦扮悊绉戝杩涘睍, 2018, 37(12): 1713-1726.
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[7]	鐢崇帀閾�, 鏌冲潳, 閭辩伒. 涓浗鍩庡競缇ゆ牳蹇冨煄甯傛湇鍔′笟鍙戝睍鐨勫熀鏈壒寰�[J]. 鍦扮悊绉戝杩涘睍, 2015, 34(8): 957-965.
[8]	鏉庨洩閾�, 鏈卞仴浜�, 鐜嬪媷. 灞呬綇灏忓尯瀹圭Н鐜囩┖闂村樊寮�——浠ュぇ杩炲競涓轰緥[J]. 鍦扮悊绉戝杩涘睍, 2015, 34(6): 687-695.
[9]	閮戣暰, 鍒樺織楂�. 涓浗瀵�“涓�甯︿竴璺�”娌跨嚎鐩存帴鎶曡祫绌洪棿鏍煎眬[J]. 鍦扮悊绉戝杩涘睍, 2015, 34(5): 563-570.
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